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Journal Article : A PROPOSED FORECAST–COORDINATE–CONSTRAIN FRAMEWORK FOR HYDRO–PV–BESS ENERGY MANAGEMENT IN SMART SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES by Oihika Arpit
The rapid addition of variable renewable generation is changing the role of energy management from simple source prioritization to anticipatory coordination. This paper presents a reproducible research-design framework for predictive energy management of a hydro–photovoltaic–battery energy storage system (Hydro–PV–BESS), using a Jabalpur-based simulation as the engineering case study. The existing Python prototype integrates a 55 MW solar PV resource, a 70 MWh battery energy storage system, hydropower reserve inspired by the Rani Avanti Bai Sagar Hydel Power Station, and fossil-grid fallback. Its documented 24-hour baseline supplies 82.98% of demand from renewable sources, while 180.57 MWh remains dependent on fossil fallback. The baseline uses a transparent reactive sequence in which PV serves demand first, followed by battery discharge, hydropower and finally fossil supply. The present paper does not claim that an AI controller has already improved these results. Instead, it formalizes a Forecast–Coordinate–Constrain architecture in which short-horizon forecasts are converted into a constrained rolling-horizon dispatch problem. The framework specifies the power-balance, storage, reserve, curtailment and reliability constraints required for implementation and defines a validation protocol covering forecast error, renewable supply share, fossil dependence, battery throughput, terminal state of charge, curtailment, reliability and emissions. It further extends the original one-day demonstration into a research design for multi-day and seasonal testing, sensitivity analysis and degradation-aware operation. The contribution is therefore an engineering integration and reproducibility framework, not a new forecasting algorithm or a demonstrated AI performance claim. The design also maps its operational data and KPIs to the emerging ITU-T smart-city energy-management and residential energy-storage standards.
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